An Attempt to Estimate the Actual Population in the Suburban Zone of Wrocław

Abstract

The suburban zone of Wroclaw is characterised by dynamic population changes and increased construction traffic. However, the pace of the changes taking place is not fully reflected in official population statistics, based on registration data, presenting a much lower population than actually resides in the suburban municipalities. The purpose of the article is to estimate the actual population of the Wroclaw suburban zone for data from 2012/13 and 2020, and to show the degree of the differentiation of the population transition taking place in individual reference units. The estimation of the population size was made on the basis of the author’s method, based on the aggregation and comparison of statistical data on registrations from the register of the General Electronic System of Population Registration (PESEL) and vector spatial data from the Database of Topographic Objects (BDOT10k). From 2012/13 to 2020, the population of suburban zone of Wrocław almost doubled compared to official statistics data. The highest level of the underestimation of the actual population was observed in villages located near main communication routes and in the closet vicinity to Wrocław city. Those are places where the suburbanistion processes were observed the earliest.

Keywords

• population estimation
• residential suburbanisation
• population size
• suburban zone
• wrocław