Enhanced Transformer Framework for Multivariate Mesoscale Eddy Trajectory Prediction

Abstract

Accurately predicting the trajectories of mesoscale eddies is essential for comprehending the distribution of marine resources and the multiscale energy cascade in the ocean. Nevertheless, current approaches for predicting mesoscale eddy trajectories frequently exhibit inadequate examination of the intrinsic multiscale temporal data, resulting in diminished predictive precision. To address this challenge, our research introduces an enhanced transformer-based framework for predicting mesoscale eddy trajectories. Initially, a multivariate dataset of mesoscale eddy trajectories is constructed and expanded, encompassing eddy properties and pertinent ocean environmental information. Additionally, novel feature factors are delineated based on the physical attributes of eddies. Subsequently, a multi-head attention mechanism is introduced to bolster the modeling of the multiscale time-varying connections within eddy trajectories. Furthermore, the original positional encoding is substituted with Time-Absolute Position Encoding, which considers the dimensions and durations of the sequence mapping, thereby improving the distinguishability of embedded vectors. Ultimately, the Soft-DTW loss function is integrated to more accurately assess the overall discrepancies among mesoscale eddy trajectories, thereby improving the model’s resilience to erratic and diverse trajectory sequences. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is assessed using the eddy-abundant South China Sea. Our framework exhibits exceptional predictive accuracy, achieving a minimum central error of 8.507 km over a seven-day period, surpassing existing state-of-the-art models.

Keywords

• mesoscale eddy
• trajectory prediction
• transformer
• time series data analysis