Theoretical and Applied Economics (Mar 2022)
Romania’s economy on the threshold of recession
Abstract
The evolution of the Romanian economy in the current situation is particularly difficult. The effects of the health and financial-economic crisis are reflected in the normal activity in the national economic branches. The measures taken by the authorities to control and control the effects of infection of the population have, in turn, some negative effects on the concrete results that are achieved in the economy. Thus, tourism and HoReCa have been virtually inactivated, which has an immediate effect on economic growth. In industry, construction and other branches of the national economy, some restrictions have also been imposed which have had the effect of reducing the production of goods and services. All together it creates a difficulty in maintaining macrostability. Romania’s national economy has declined in the last quarter. If this decrease is maintained in the first quarter of 2022, according to the economic criteria for assessing the economic cycle, it turns out that the country is entering a recession. March inflation is already forecast to reach 10%. In these conditions, in this article we set out to analyse the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, with the main objective of highlighting the fact that in the current price crisis, the international crisis (Ukraine-Russia armed conflict) and the effects of the crisis economic and financial issues may cause the countries, but we are referring to Romania, to continue to decrease in the next quarter. In this article we used the data published by the National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, we applied some data processing using statistical-econometric methods, we performed comparability studies in time and space, precisely in order to accurately highlight the economic situation and the trend of the evolution of the economy in the next period. A series of graphs, a series of data and tables were used that convincingly highlight the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product, i.e. the evolution of economic growth.
