Spatial Analysis of Aquatic Ecological Health under Future Climate Change Using Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree (XGBoost) and SWAT
Soyoung Woo,
Wonjin Kim,
Chunggil Jung,
Jiwan Lee,
Yongwon Kim,
Seongjoon Kim
Affiliations
Soyoung Woo
Department of Water Resources and River Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Republic of Korea
Wonjin Kim
Department of Water Resources and River Research, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Goyang 10223, Republic of Korea
Chunggil Jung
Forecast and Control Division, Han River Flood Control Office, 328 Dongjak-daero, Seocho-gu, Seoul 06501, Republic of Korea
Jiwan Lee
Water Resource Information Center, Han River Flood Control Office, 328 Dongjak-daero, Seocho-gu, Seoul 06501, Republic of Korea
Yongwon Kim
Department of Civil, Environmental and Plant Engineering, Graduate School, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea
Seongjoon Kim
Division of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University, 120 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea
Climate change not only affects the water resource system but also has a great impact on the aquatic ecosystem, which is complexly linked to various organic and inorganic matter. It is difficult to simulate the current aquatic ecosystem and predict the future system due to the immensity and complexity of aquatic ecosystems; however, a spatial analysis of future aquatic ecological health is necessary if we are to adapt and take action against future climate change. In this study, we evaluated the aquatic ecological health of the Han River basin under the future climate change RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using three indices: fish assessment index (FAI), trophic diatom index (TDI), and benthic macroinvertebrate index (BMI). For this, we developed the SWAT-XGBoost linkage algorithm, and the algorithm accuracy for the FAI, TDI, and BMI was 89.3~95.2%. In the case of the FAI and BMI assessment of aquatic ecological health, the upstream Han River was classified as a hot spot. In the case of the TDI, the downstream area of the Han River was classified as a cold spot. However, as the current TDI downstream was classified as grades D and E, continuous management is needed.