Mortality forecast from gastroduodenal ulcer disease for different gender and age population groups in Ukraine.

Abstract

Until 2030 theulcermortalitywillhaveagrowingtrendasestimatedbytheWorldHealthOrganization. Detectionofcountriesandpopulationgroupswithhighrisksfortheulcermortalityispossibleusingforecast method. The authors madeaforecastofmortalityratefromcomplicatedulcerdiseaseinmalesandfemalesandtheiragegroups (15-24, 25-34, 35-54, 55-74, over 75, 15 - over 75) in our country. ThestudyincludeddataoftheWorldHealthOrganizationDatabase from 1991 to 2012. The work analyzed absolute all-Ukrainian numbers of persons of both genders died from the ulcer causes (К25-К27 coded by the 10th International Diseases Classification). The relative mortality per 100 000 of alive persons of the same age was calculated denovo. Theanalysisofdistributionlawsandtheirestimationpresentsatrendofgrowthoftherelativemortality. Aremarkableincreaseofdeathsfromtheulcerdiseaseisobservedinmalesandfemalesoftheageafter 55 years old. After the age of 75 years this trend is more expressed.

Keywords

• forecast
• mortality
• ulcer disease
• population