Renewable Energy and Environmental Sustainability (Jan 2023)
Estimating mortality cost and social cost of CO2 emitted by items, applied to passenger vehicles
Abstract
Over 60% of carbon emissions are from residential consumption. People in developed nations need to reduce their carbon footprints six-fold to stabilize CO2 levels in the atmosphere. This research develops a method of estimating and monetizing mortality costs of items. Mortality Cost of Carbon Rate (MCCR) is the fraction of a climate change related death that would probably occur over 80 yr with a specified temperature trajectory, from the emission of 1 tCO2e. MCCRs are allocated to items on an exponential curve generated from two researched MCCRs corresponding to temperature trajectories. MCC of an item (MCCI) is its MCCR multiplied by its life cycle CO2e emissions. The method was applied to the 2020 Australian passenger vehicle fleet and 6 vehicle types. MCCI was compared to mortalities from crashes and exhaust pollution. Total fleet mortality was estimated at around 62,000/ year. Mortality from 2020 CO2 emissions will probably be around 56,000 - 75 times higher than crash deaths - with uncertainty range 28,000 to 106,000, compared to toxic exhaust emissions 5,600 and crashes 750. A Sustainable Personal CO2 Footprint' of 1.5 t CO2/ person/ year was set as a benchmark for sustainable consumption. Electric buses, E-bicycles/ scooters and micro-EVs are sustainable and if universally adopted, would reduce mortality by 96%. Social Cost of Carbon Mortality Rate (SCCMR) monetizes MCCR using a global Value of a Statistical Life Year. SCCM of items (SCCMI) is calculated as for MCCI. Research estimates of MCCR and SCCMR vary according to assumed causes of mortality, temperature trajectories and discount rates; many are underestimated as they exclude some mortality damage sectors. Toxic exhaust emission and crash mortalities were monetized using the Australian Value of a Statistical Life. Total social mortality cost of a large 4 wd ICE diesel SUV was approximately $6300, current fleet average $4800, and micro-EV $400.
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