Covid-19, oil price and UK economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the ARDL approach

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate how the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) influence the UK economic policy uncertainty. Using daily data ranging from 11 March 2020 to 7 May 2020, an ARDL model has been applied in this study to capture both the short-run and long-run impact of COVID-19 on economic policy uncertainty. Additionally, the influence of Brent oil price on economic policy uncertainty is also examined. Based on the ARDL result, it is found that both COVID-19 new cases and new deaths reported in the UK have a strong and positive association with the UK economic policy uncertainty in the long-run. However, Brent oil price shows an inverse connection with economic policy uncertainty in the long run.

Keywords

• covid-19
• oil price
• economic policy uncertainty
• short-run
• long-run
• ardl