A machine learning-based approach for individualized prediction of short-term outcomes after anterior cervical corpectomy

Abstract

Study Design A retrospective machine learning (ML) classification study for prognostic modeling after anterior cervical corpectomy (ACC). Purpose To evaluate the effectiveness of ML in predicting ACC outcomes and develop an accessible, user-friendly tool for this purpose. Overview of Literature Based on our literature review, no study has examined the capability of ML algorithms to predict major short-term ACC outcomes, such as prolonged length of hospital stay (LOS), non-home discharge, and major complications. Methods The American College of Surgeons’ National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was used to identify patients who underwent ACC. Prolonged LOS, non-home discharges, and major complications were assessed as the outcomes of interest. ML models were developed with the TabPFN algorithm and integrated into an open-access website to predict these outcomes. Results The models for predicting prolonged LOS, non-home discharges, and major complications demonstrated mean areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.802, 0.816, and 0.702, respectively. These findings highlight the discriminatory capacities of the models: fair (AUROC >0.7) for differentiating patients with major complications from those without, and good (AUROC >0.8) for distinguishing between those with and without prolonged LOS and non-home discharges. According to the SHapley Additive Explanations analysis, single- versus multiple-level surgery, age, body mass index, preoperative hematocrit, and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status repetitively emerged as the most important variables for each outcome. Conclusions This study has considerably enhanced the prediction of postoperative results after ACC surgery by implementing advanced ML techniques. A major contribution is the creation of an accessible web application, highlighting the practical value of the developed models. Our findings imply that ML can serve as an invaluable supplementary tool to stratify patient risk for this procedure and can predict diverse postoperative adverse outcomes.

Keywords

• cervical vertebrae
• degenerative spine disease
• anterior cervical corpectomy
• machine learning