Forecasting Changes in Intrabranch Ties in the Input-Output Model

Abstract

The study examines the theoretical and methodological bases for forecasting intrabranch ties, which are used in modern economic practice and are based on the methodology of national accounting. There analyzed reproduction processes of the production system of a national economy using the production account, the economy being considered as a single-branch, three-branch one. A review of modern economic and statistical methods to forecast changes in intrabranch ties based on the input-output model is carried out. The forecast of changes in intrabranch ties is made using an aggregated three-branch input-output model of the German economy (2013–2014). The study made it possible to carry out a systems analysis of the country’s economy, determine the changes in intrabranch ties and GDP due to changes in the structure of final consumption.

Keywords

• national accounts
• manufacturing
• input-output model
• intrabranch ties
• forecasting
• regulation of reproduction processes
• indicators of reproduction