Variables associated with COVID-19 severity: an observational study of non-paediatric confirmed cases from the general population of the Basque Country, Spain

Abstract

Objectives To investigate which were the most relevant sociodemographic and clinical variables associated with COVID-19 severity, and uncover how their inter-relations may have affected such severity.Design A retrospective observational study based on electronic health record data.Participants Individuals ≥14 years old with a positive PCR or serology test, between 28 February and 31 May 2020, belonging to the Basque Country (Spain) public health system. Institutionalised and individuals admitted to a hospital at home unit were excluded from the study.Main outcome measure Three severity categories were established: primary care, hospital/intensive care unit admission and death.Results A total of n=14 197 cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most variables presented statistically significant associations with the outcome (p<0.0001). The Classification and Regression Trees recursive partitioning methodology (based on n=13 792) suggested that among all associations, those with, age, sex, stratification of patient healthcare complexity, chronic consumption of blood and blood-forming organ, and nervous system drugs, as well as the total number of chronic Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical types were the most relevant. Psychosis also emerged as a potential factor.Conclusions Older cases are more likely to experience more severe outcomes. However, the sex, underlying health status and chronic drug consumption may interfere and alter the ageing effect. Understanding the factors related to the outcome severity is of key importance when designing and promoting public health intervention plans for the COVID-19 pandemic.