The retrospective gambler's fallacy

Abstract

The gambler's fallacy (Tune, 1964) refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate. In three studies, participants exhibited a extit{retrospective gambler's fallacy} (RGF) in which an event that seems rare appears to come from a longer sequence than an event that seems more common. Study 1 demonstrates this bias for streaks, while Study 2 does so with single rare events and shows that the appearance of rarity is more important than actual rarity. Study 3 extends these findings from abstract gambling domains into real world domains to demonstrate the generalizability of the effects. The RGF follows from the law of small numbers (Tversky and Kahneman, 1971) and has many applications, from perceptions of the social world to philosophical debates about the existence of multiple universes.

Keywords

• The gambler's fallacy (Tune
• 1964) refers to the beliefthat a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate. Inthree studies
• participants exhibited a extit{retrospectivegambler's fallacy} (RGF) in which an eventthat seems rare appears to come from a longersequence than an event that seems more common. Study 1demonstrates this bias for streaks
• while Study 2 does so with singlerare events and shows that the appearance of rarity is more importantthan actual rarity. Study 3 extends these findings from abstractgambling domains into real world domains to demonstrate thegeneralizability of the effects. The RGF follows from the law of smallnumbers (Tversky and Kahneman
• 1971) and has many applications
• fromperceptions of the social world to philosophical debates about theexistence of multiple universes.