Daily Runoff Prediction in Maroun Basin Using HEC-HMS Model

Abstract

The prediction of stream-flow have incessantly attracted water engineer studies with due regard to its importance in the design of water structures, water intake from the rivers, planning and operation of reservoirs of dams, and erosion and sedimentation control measures in rivers. In this research, HEC-HMS model was used in prediction of daily stream-flow in the Maroun Basin, evaluating the ability and precision of this model in predicting stream-flow. For this purpose, continuous simulation of daily rainfall-runoff was performed before the prediction period using soil moisture accounting algorithm (SMA). In order to calibrate and verify the HEC-HMS model, daily stream-flow data from 1995 to 2006 and from 2007 to 2011 at the Idenak hydrometric Station were respectively used. Then, daily stream-flow at Idenak Station was predicted from 2011 to 2012. The results showed that the goodness of fit tests including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index, coefficient of determination and root mean square error in the runoff prediction process at Idenak station are equal to 0.56, 0.67 and 32.2 m3/s, respectively. Therefore, the HEC-HMS model has acceptable ability and precision in predicting runoff.

Keywords

• idanak station
• hec-hms model
• nash-sutcliffe coefficient
• prediction of stream-flow
• simulation of rainfall-runoff