Prostranstvennaâ Èkonomika (Jul 2024)
Impact of Integration and Geopolitical Factors on Trade of the Russian Far East
Abstract
The purpose of the study is to quantify the impact of integration and geopolitical factors on trade of the Russian Far East with foreign countries. The estimates obtained on the basis of gravity modeling for 2000–2021 revealed the stimulating influence of integration factors (participation of Russia and trade partner countries in the WTO; Russia’s participation in ‘deep’ trade agreements) and the restraining influence of geopolitical factors (acute political confrontation between Russia and foreign countries; sanctions imposed on the Russian economy) on the Far East’s foreign trade. It was established that the participation of Russia and trade partner countries in the WTO contributed to the increase in foreign trade of the Russian Far East by 58%. The positive indirect influence of the ‘WTO factor’ and the stimulating effect of the global economic environment on foreign trade turnover of the Russian Far East was determined, indicating the ‘sensitivity’ of the macro-region’s open economy to trade liberalization at the global level. It was found that Russia’s creation of ‘deep’ integration formats with the Eurasian Economic Union countries and Vietnam contributed to an increase in the Far East’s trade with them by 141%, but the share of these economies in the macro-region’s foreign trade was small. It was found that the presence of an acute political conflict between Russia and foreign countries reduced the Far East’s trade with these countries by 79%, but due to the small share of these countries in the macro-region’s trade turnover, this effect was almost imperceptible. It was determined that the imposition of sanctions against Russia by a number of Western countries in 2014–2021 led to a 43% reduction in the Far East’s trade turnover with them and could contribute to the accelerated construction of infrastructure for the supply of hydrocarbons to the Chinese market, limiting the opportunities for geographical diversification of the macro-region’s exports
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