Estimation and Multi Scenario Prediction of Land Use Carbon Storage in Western Sichuan Plateau

Abstract

[Objective] Regional carbon storage is closely related to land use. Under the goal of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, researches about land use change calculations in significant regions play an important role on coordinating and optimizing regional land use patterns, improving the future carbon sequestration potential of regional ecosystems. [Methods] Taking Western Sichuan Plateau as the study area this paper predicts land use changes under different scenarios from 2020 to 2030, and estimates regional carbon storage changes by using revised land use carbon density data and land use data in 2000, 2010 and 2020. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, grassland gradually decreased from 65.20% to 63.65%, forest continuously expanded from 31.73% to 32.92%, unused land firstly decreased and then increased and the net increase rate is 0.57%, water area and farmland firstly increased and then decreased and their net decrease rate is 0.11% and 0.11%, wetlands continued to increase by 0.07%; The carbon reserves of the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 24.26×108, 24.29×108, 24.27×108 t, showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.(2) Carbon storage reduced 3.19×105 t under natural development scenario. Under farmland protection scenario, ecological protection scenario, and farmland ecological joint protection scenario, their carbon sequestration will be respectively 4.29×106, 9.72×106, 9.60×106 t. [Conclusion] Reversing the increasing trend of unused land, continuing to steadily implement ecological protection policies with maintaining the cultivated land area, improving the carbon sequestration potential, and helping the Western Sichuan Plateau become an important “carbon sink” area should become the key points of land spatial planning and control on the Western Sichuan Plateau.

Keywords

• western sichuan plateau
• carbon storage
• land use
• invest model
• ca-markov model