FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM PERIOD BY USING ARIMAX MODEL IN THE CONSTRUCTION AND MATERIALS SECTOR IN THAILAND

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the forecasting of energy consumption in the Construction and Materials sectors. The scope of the study covers the forecasting periods of energy consumption for the next 10 years, 2017-2026, 20 years, 2017-2036, and 30 years, 2017-2046, by using ARIMAX Model. The prediction results show that these models are effective in the forecast measured by RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. The results show that from the first model (2,1,1), which predicted the duration of 10 years, 2017-2026, indicates that Thailand has increased an energy consumption rate with the average of 18.09%, while the second model (2,1,2) with the prediction of 20 years, 2017-2036, Thailand arises its energy consumption up to 37.32%. In addition, the third model (2,1,3) predicted the duration of 30 years from 2017 to 2046, and it has found that Thailand increases its energy consumption up to 49.72%.

Keywords

• construction and materials sector
• population growth
• energy consumption
• GDP per capita