Precipitation extremes over territory of Belarus under current climate change

Abstract

The study presents an investigation of current and future changes in precipitation regime over territory of Belarus. An assessment of precipitation means and extremes and droughts indices was provided for period of 1948–2019 and more detailed analysis have been carried out for period of climate change in 1989–2019. The precipitation expected changes were studied for period of 2021–2099. It was established that precipitation growth up to 20–30 % in winter during 1989–2019 in comparison by 1948–1988, is connected with increase the number of days with weak precipitation and caused by growing duration of liquid precipitation falling. In summer the reducing of rain falling duration was noticed over territory of Belarus. At the same time the significant growth of precipitation maximal totals per day by 20–30 % was detected. The largest growth was found in the south of the country. Dry days number raised by 1–4 days and dry and hot days numbers raised by 1–2 days per decade. The repeatability of atmosphere droughts of different gradations increased up to 2–26 % by the majority of meteorological stations. According to climate projections based on the EURO-CORDEX-11, the growth of yearly and seasonal precipitation is expected over territory of Belarus. The precipitation increase is connected with growth of intense precipitation. At the same time, the dry periods duration is projected to rise in the warm part of the year. These tendencies are characterised the climate extremeness increase in the current century.

Keywords

• precipitation
• maximal totals
• rainfall duration
• standardised indices of precipitation
• droughts
• climate projections