Uncertainty and public expenditure: An analysis from a model of interactive variables

Abstract

In accordance with the post-Keynesian theory, the purpose of this study was to determine how public spending influences the impact of banking uncertainty assessed by banks' liquidity preference – on the economic performance of Brazilian microregions. For this purpose, a data panel model with interactive variables was used for the period from 2003 to 2014. As expenditure variables, municipal aggregate expenditure on education and transportation was used. The results indicate that public expenditures are relevant to determine the level of economic activity in a direct way, and indirectly by reducing the adverse impact of bank uncertainty on the economic performance of microregions. In addition, spending on education proved to be more effective in determining output than transport spending.

Keywords

• Post-Keynesian theory
• Bank uncertainty
• Public expenditure
• Panel data
• Postkeynesianism