Мать и дитя в Кузбассе (Feb 2023)
TRENDS IN THE NUMBER OF ABORTIONS IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH PUBLIC OPINION AND LEGISLATIVE REGULATION
Abstract
The purpose of the work – to study the trend in the total number of abortions in the Russian Federation for the period from the collapse of the USSR to the present, with the definition of the trend for the period 2011-2020. Materials and methods of work. The materials of the study are data from state medical statistics, data from the World Health Organization, scientific and methodological publications on the topic of demography, reproductive health and family planning, using the method of system analysis according to Golubkov E.P. trend method. Results. There are significant obstacles in the issues of termination of pregnancy at the request of the mother, associated with public opinion, the activities of the religious communities of the state and the inclination of state policy to a complete ban on such abortions, which we regarded as a negative phenomenon. Despite such a policy, over the period from the collapse of the USSR to the present day, the total number of abortions has been gradually decreasing. The time dependence of the number of abortions per year in the Russian Federation (y) on time (t) for the period was studied. At the specification stage, a linear trend was chosen. Its parameters are estimated by the least squares method. It was also found that the model parameters are statistically significant. It has been established that with each time period t, the value of y decreases on average by 63379 abortions per year. Conclusion. A special medical-statistical study (method of trends) and the method of system analysis have proved the continuing trend towards a decrease in the number of abortions in the Russian Federation and objects of the Federation for the entire period from the collapse of the USSR to the present. An analysis of the accuracy of determining the estimates of the parameters of the trend equation and testing hypotheses regarding the coefficients of its linear equation showed the statistical significance of the coefficients a and b, which proves the existence of a trend in the time series. The linearity of the trend for the period 2011-2020 was also proved, which made it possible to make a forecast for 2021 and 2022.
