Joinpoint regression and age period cohort analysis of global and Chinese HIV incidence trends from 1990 to 2021

Abstract

Abstract In China and globally, to analyze the temporal trends of HIV incidence and age, period and cohort effects from 1990 to 2021. A Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze the time-varying trends of standardized HIV incidence rates worldwide and in China from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The study also explored the effects of age, period, and cohort on HIV incidence trends. From 1990 to 2021, the global standardized incidence of AIDS increased initially and then declined, with females experiencing a higher disease burden than males. In China, the burden was greater in males than females. The age–period–cohort model revealed that the global risk of AIDS incidence peaked between ages 60 and 69, while in China, it was highest between ages 75 and 79. From 1990 to 2021, the global and Chinese standardized incidence rates of AIDS generally followed an increasing trend before declining, with notable gender differences and the highest incidence rates observed in older populations. It is important to address the issues related to AIDS among the elderly and develop targeted health policies to reduce societal burdens and improve public health.

Keywords

• AIDS
• Incidence
• Joinpoint regression
• Age–period–cohort