Interpolation of Point Prevalence Rate of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 Second Phase Epidemic in South Korea

Abstract

Humans and animals are both susceptible to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In the future, HPAI has the potential to be a source of zoonoses and pandemic disease drivers. It is necessary to identify areas of high risk that are more vulnerable to HPAI infections. In this study, we applied unbiased predictions based on known information to find points of localities with a high probability of point prevalence rate. To carry out such predictions, we utilized the inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging method, with the help of the R statistical computing program. The provinces of Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheongbuk-do and Ulsan have high anticipated risk. This research might aid in the management of avian influenza threats associated with various potential risks.

Keywords

• highly pathogenic avian influenza
• prevalence
• predictions
• inverse distance weighting
• kriging