The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

Abstract

Background Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods and findings We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a “no-new-vaccine” counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. Conclusions TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines. In a modelling study, Dr. Allison Portnoy and colleagues explore the cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries. Author summary Why was this study done? Previous studies have highlighted the economic impact of tuberculosis (TB) and the potential economic impact that novel TB vaccines could have on reducing this burden in specific low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel TB vaccines, which depend on vaccine price and delivery strategy that may vary by country, are needed by vaccine developers, manufacturers, and potential purchasers to guide investment decisions. No modeling studies have estimated the cost and cost-effectiveness of novel TB vaccine products with country-specific assumptions for medical and non-medical costs, indirect costs, vaccine delivery costs, and delivery strategies across a wide range of LMICs. What did the researchers do and find? We estimated the costs, cost-effectiveness, and incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) of TB vaccine introduction from both the health system and societal perspective, in order to inform global-level decision-making for novel TB vaccine investment and introduction. Using mathematical and economic models, we assessed scenarios for the introduction of novel TB vaccines with a wide range of characteristics and a diverse set of health and economic outcomes, including country-specific introduction years from 2028 to 2047. Our analysis projected that an effective new TB vaccine could offer large potential health and economic benefits over 2028 to 2050. From a societal perspective, vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 LMICs compared to a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) threshold. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult TB vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in health and economic benefits by 2050, with greater benefits in LMICs with elevated TB incidence. What do these findings mean? Introduction of a new TB vaccine was found to be impactful and cost-effective for a range of assumptions on vaccine price and delivery strategies, with aggregate health and economic benefits of similar scale to the most influential health interventions in LMIC settings in recent years. The results of these analyses can be used by global and country stakeholders to inform TB vaccine policy and introduction preparedness, as well as decision-making around future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.