Comparative performance of CHA2DS2VASc and anticoagulation and risk factors in atrial fibrillation risk scores for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Background: The AnTicoagulation and Risk factors in Atrial fibrillation (ATRIA) and CHA2DS2VASc risk scores used to detect the thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients has been shown recently to predict poor clinical outcomes varies clinical settings, regardless of having AF. We aimed to examine the potential utility of admission CHA2DS2VASc and ATRIA scores for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: In this retrospective study hospitalized 134 COVID-19 patients who diagnosed with a positive polymerase chain reaction test, were included. Patients were divided into two groups who were died and survivors, both the groups were compared according to clinical, laboratory, and demographic features, including the CHA2DS2VASc and ATRIA risk score. Predictors of mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis. Results: ATRIA and CHA2DS2VASc risk scores were predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients. Logistic regression analysis showed that ATRIA risk score, AF and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were an independent predictor of mortality. For an ATRIA score cut off value of 3, the sensitivity was 77.78%, specificity 57.94%, positive predictive value 31.80, and negative predictive value 91.20. For a CHA2DS2VASc score cut-off value of 4, the sensitivity was 44.44%, specificity 83.18%, positive predictive value 40, and negative predictive value 85.60. Conclusion: CHA2DS2-VASc and ATRIA scores can be used as a novel, simple tool for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Keywords

• atrial
• coronavirus
• embolism
• fibrillation
• mortality