Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.

Abstract

BackgroundColombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.Methodology/principal findingsWe analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff's scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika's spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.Conclusions/significanceThe results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.