A VALIDADE PREDITIVA DO DESEMPENHO ACADÊMICO NO PRIMEIRO ANO PARA A PERFORMANCE FINAL NO ENSINO SUPERIOR

Abstract

This study seeks to verify the correlation between indicators of academic performance in the first year of higher education and those of the graduation for the same individuals. The intention is to verify the predictive validity of the first variable in relation to the second one. The research arises from the concern and will to find indicators that allows an early diagnosis of the academic performance tendencies, creating opportunity for an tempestive action or intervention in certain specif cases or even broader scenarios. The analisys was made thru a case study of the 2009 classes of Administration, Law and Pedagogy Degrees of a brazilian Federal University. After gathering academic performance data of the subjects tests were made to verify the correletion between variables of performance at the conlusion of first year and at graduation time. The quali-quantitative research identified strong correlation (r results between 0.7 and 0.9) between the variables pointing that – at least in the cases studied – the performance of first year was a strong predictor of the final performance in higher education.

Keywords

• evaluation
• predictive validity
• academic performance
• academic management
• university administration