Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Based on Local Dynamic Graph Spatiotemporal–Long Short-Term Memory Model

Abstract

Traffic congestion and frequent traffic accidents have become the main problems affecting urban traffic. The effective location prediction of vehicle trajectory can help alleviate traffic congestion, reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents, and optimize the urban traffic system. Vehicle trajectory is closely related to the surrounding Point of Interest (POI). POI can be considered as the spatial feature and can be fused with trajectory points to improve prediction accuracy. A Local Dynamic Graph Spatiotemporal–Long Short-Term Memory (LDGST-LSTM) was proposed in this paper to extract and fuse the POI knowledge and realize next location prediction. POI semantic information was learned by constructing the traffic knowledge graph, and spatial and temporal features were extracted by combining the Graph Attention Network (GAT) and temporal attention mechanism. The effectiveness of LDGST-LSTM was verified on two datasets, including Chengdu taxi trajectory data in August 2014 and October 2018. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed model were significantly improved compared with the benchmark models. The effects of major components in the proposed model were also evaluated through an ablation experiment. Moreover, the weights of POI that influence location prediction were visualized to improve the interpretability of the proposed model.

Keywords

• vehicle trajectory
• location prediction
• knowledge graph
• point of interest
• graph attention network