DECISION MAKING UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN AGRICULTURE: A CASE STUDY OF OIL CROPS

Abstract

In decision under uncertainty individual decision makers (farmers) have to choose one of a set number of alternatives with complete information about their outcomes but in the absence of any information or data about the probabilities of the various state of nature. This paper examines a decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. The classical approaches of Wald’s, Hurwicz’s, Maximax, Savage’s and Laplace’s are discussed and compared in case study of oil pumpkin production and selling of pumpkin oil. The computational complexity and usefulness of the criterion are further presented. The article is concluded with aggregate the results of all observed criteria and business alternatives in the conditions of uncertainty, where the business alternative 1 is suggested.

Keywords

• uncertainty
• Wald’s
• Hurwicz’s
• Maximax
• Savage’s and Laplace’s criterion
• decision support system
• agriculture