Colored noise in river level oscillations as triggering factor for unstable dynamics in a landslide model with displacement delay

Abstract

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In the present paper we examine the effect of the noise in river level oscillation on the landslide dynamics. The analysis is conducted in several phases. In the first phase, we analyze the multi-annual level oscillation of the Kolubara and the Ibar river (Serbia). Based on the observed dataset, we suggest a deterministic model for the river level oscillation with the additional contribution of the noise part, which we confirm to have the properties of colored noise. In the second phase of the research, we introduce the influence of the river-level oscillation, with the included effect of colored noise in the spring-block delay model of landslide dynamics. Results of the research indicate conditions under which the effect of river noise has both stabilizing and destabilizing effects on the landslide dynamics. The effect of noise intensity D and correlation time ε is systematically analyzed in interaction with delayed interaction, spring stiffness and friction parameters. It is determined that the landslide dynamics is sensitive to the change of noise intensity and that the increase of noise intensity leads to onset of unstable landslide dynamics. On the other hand, results obtained indicate that the examined model of landslide dynamics is rather robust towards the change of correlation time ε. Interaction of this parameter and some of the friction parameters leads to stabilization of landslide dynamics, which confirms the importance of the influence of the noise color in river level oscillations on the landslide dynamics.

Keywords

• landslide
• spring-block model
• colored noise
• noise intensity
• correlation time
• delayed interaction