Contextual Intelligence: An AI Approach to Manufacturing Skills’ Forecasting

Abstract

The manufacturing industry is skill-intensive and plays a pivotal role in South Africa’s economy, reflecting the nation’s progress and development. The advent of technology has initiated a transformative era within the manufacturing sector. Workforce skills are at the heart of ensuring the sustained growth of the industry. This study delves into the skill-related aspects of the occupational landscape of the South African manufacturing sector, with a particular focus on two important manufacturing sectors: the food and beverage manufacturing (FoodBev) sector and the chemical manufacturing (CHIETA) sector. Leveraging the forecasting prowess of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), this paper outlines a sectorial occupational forecasting modeling exercise to reveal which job roles are poised for expansion and which are expected to decline. The approach predicted future skills’ demand 80% accuracy for 473 out of 713 (66%) occupations for FoodBev and 474 out of 522 (91%) for CHIETA. These insights are invaluable for industry stakeholders and educational institutions, providing guidance to support the sector’s growth in an era marked by technological advancement.

Keywords

• ARIMA forecasting
• labor market
• data-driven decision-making