Data-Driven AI-Based Parameters Tuning Using Grid Partition Algorithm for Predicting Climatic Effect on Epidemic Diseases

Abstract

Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) remains one of the promising AI techniques to handle data over-fitting and as well, improves generalization. Presently, many ANFIS optimization techniques have been synergized and found effective at some points through trial and error procedures. In this work, we tune ANFIS using Grid partition algorithm to handle unseen data effectively with fast convergence. This model is initialized using a careful selection of effective parameters that discriminate climate conditions; minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. These parameters are used as inputs for ANFIS, whereas confirmed cases of COVID-19 is chosen as dependent values for two consecutive months and first ten days of December for new COVID-19 confirmed cases according to the Department of disease control (DDC) Thailand. The proposed ANFIS model provides outstanding achievement to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 with $R^{2}$ of 0.99. Furthermore, data set trend analysis is done to compare fluctuations of daily climatic parameters, to satisfy our proposition, and illustrates the serious effect of these parameters on COVID-19 epidemic virus spread.

Keywords

• Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system
• artificial Intelligence
• COVID-19
• climatic impacts
• epidemic diseases
• grid partition algorithm