Spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and Zika incidence during the 2015-2018 outbreak of Zika in Mexico

Abstract

Objective. Evaluate spatially and temporally simultaneous presence of clusters of dengue and Zika clinical cases and their relationship with expected dengue transmission risk. Materials and methods. A classification of dengue risk transmission was carried out for whole country, and spatial autocorrelation analyses to identify clusters of confirmed clinical cases of dengue and Zika from 2015 to 2018 was conducted using Moran’s Index statistics. Results. Clusters of both diseases were identified in dengue-high risk munici­palities at the beginning of the outbreak, but, at the end of the outbreak, Zika clusters occurred in dengue low-risk mu­nicipalities. Conclusion. This study identified Zika clusters in low-risk dengue areas suggesting participation of several factors that favor virus introduction and dissemination, such as differences in entomological and control interventions, and the possibility of cross-immunity in the population.

Keywords

• dengue
• zika
• spatiotemporal transmission
• spatial autocorrelation