Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter Concentration near the Ground in North China from Multivariable Remote Sensing Data Based on MIV-BP Neural Network

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and industrialization lead to severe air pollution in China, threatening public health. However, it is challenging to understand the pollutants’ spatial distributions by relying on a network of ground-based monitoring instruments, considering the incomplete dataset. To predict the spatial distribution of fine-mode particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution near the surface, we established models based on the back propagation (BP) neural network for PM2.5 mass concentration in North China using remote sensing products. According to our predictions, PM2.5 mass concentrations are affected by changes in surface reflectance and the dominant particle size for different seasons. The PM2.5 mass concentration predicted by the seasonal model shows a similar spatial pattern (high in the east but low in the west) influenced by the terrain, but shows high value in winter and low in summer. Compared to the ground-based data, our predictions agree with the spatial distribution of PM2.5 mass concentrations, with a mean bias of +17% in the North China Plain in 2017. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients (R) of the four seasons’ instantaneous measurements are always above 0.7, indicating that the seasonal models primarily improve the PM2.5 mass concentration prediction.

Keywords

• MIV-BP neural network
• PM_2.5 mass concentration prediction
• aerosol optical depth
• satellite remote sensing