Countries with high deaths due to flu and tuberculosis demonstrate lower COVID-19 mortality: roles of vaccinations

Abstract

Deaths due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic vary (3–1681 deaths/million and mortality rates 0.71–14.54%) and are far greater in some countries compared to others. This observation led us to perform epidemiological analysis, using data in the public domain, to study the correlation of COVID-19 with the prevalence and vaccination strategies for two respiratory pathogens: flu and tuberculosis (TB). Countries showing more than 1000 COVID-19 deaths were selected at three time points during the ongoing pandemic: 17 May, 1 October and 31 December 2020. The major findings of this study that are broadly consistent at all three time points are: First, countries with high flu deaths negatively correlate with COVID-19 deaths/million. Second, TB incidences and deaths negatively correlate with COVID-19 deaths/million. Countries displaying high TB and flu deaths (Nigeria, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Indonesia, India) display lower COVID-19 deaths/million compared to countries with low TB and flu deaths (Italy, Spain, USA, France). Third, countries with greater flu vaccination display lower flu incidences but higher COVID-19 deaths/million and mortality rates. On the other hand, Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccination negatively correlates with Covid-19 deaths/million. Fourth, countries with only BCG, but no flu, vaccination show delayed and lower number of COVID-19 deaths/million compared to countries with flu, but no BCG, vaccination. Fifth, countries with high BCG vaccination coverage as well as high TB deaths display the lowest COVID-19 deaths/million. The implications of this global study are discussed with respect to the roles of respiratory infections and vaccinations in lowering COVID-19 deaths.

Keywords

• bcg
• covid-19
• flu
• tuberculosis
• vaccinations