Towards an efficient streamflow forecasting method for event-scales in Ca River basin, Vietnam

Abstract

Study region: The Ca River basin is located in the North Central Coast area of Vietnam Study focus: This study aims to develop a deep learning framework that is both effective and straightforward in order to forecast water levels in the Ca River basin in advance of multiple time steps for the event scales. We have thoroughly studied and assessed two deep learning models (DLMs), long-short term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), for their capacity to forecast water levels, focusing on various aspects such as the influence of sequence length or the impact of hyperparameter selection. Besides, two data scenarios were established using hydrological data from eight severe floods between 2007 and 2019 to examine the effect of input variables on model performance. Water level data was employed for both the scenarios (S1 and S2), whereas precipitation data was used only in S2. The cross-validation technique was used dynamically to address the issue of limited data. The inputs were reformatted as tensors and were then randomly divided into subsets. This flexible tuning preserved the sequential nature of the hydrological data while enabling the DLMs to be trained efficiently. New hydrological insights for the region: The findings revealed that both the models exhibited equally excellent performances. The NSE of the LSTM model varies from 0.999–0.971 compared to 0.998–0.974 of the GRU model, corresponding to forecast cases from one to four-time steps ahead. This indicated that the use of multiple-input data types (S2) contrary to only one date type (S1) does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance. LSTM/GRU models with one hidden layer are adequate for delivering high performance while minimizing the data processing time.

Keywords

• Ca River basin
• Cross-validation
• Extreme flood
• LSTM
• GRU