Acta Odontológica Colombiana (Jul 2018)
Macroeconomic impact generated by the pandemic of HIV/AIDS informed by the international literature since 1990 to 2013
Abstract
Background: in 2013, UNAIDS reports more than 62 million people infected with HIV since the onset of the pandemic, of which 3 million became infected during the past year. The impact of HIV/AIDS at the individual level has been well documented, but the effects of the pandemic at the global macroeconomic level have been less studied. Objective: to determine the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS. Materials and methods: hermeneutic study on secondary sources of information that through triangulation of this information with the economic theory was documented predictions of what will happen in the countries most affected by the pandemic. Results: the HIV/AIDS pandemic impacts the labour supply, through increased morbidity and mortality. AIDS reduces labour productivity, thus creating fiscal crises. Public spending related to HIV/AIDS will increase within the range of 0.2% and 3.5% of the government budget. The low productivity of the national primary sector increases the import of food. Slope of GDP in South Africa by 2010 the GDP would be 17% lower than a scenario without HIV/AIDS. Conclusions: it is estimated that HIV/AIDS will increase the costs of maintaining the labour force, will alter the trade balance, inducing a fiscal deficit, as well as a productivity decrease of close to 75% and economic growth of 5% of GDP in the next ten years. Although a search was carried out worldwide, the results obtained are concentrated in Africa.
