Décryptage des crises et diplomatie d’anticipation. Entretien avec Manuel Lafont Rapnouil

Abstract

How do diplomats forecast, analyze and deal with an international crisis? The director of the Analysis and Forecasting Center (CAPS) at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs (MEAE), a sort of in-house think tank in charge of policy planning, describes its missions in terms of decision-making assistance and crisis anticipation. He reveals the types of relationships it has, internally, with diplomats and the decision-makers in foreign policy and, externally, with the world of research and expertise. He is then asked about the impact of two recent large-scale crisis (the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-21 and Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine from February 2022) on both the diplomatic activity and the consultancy provided by the CAPS.

Keywords

• diplomacy
• war
• international crisis
• policy planning
• pandemic