Monthly Natural Gas Consumption’s Modelling and Its Trend Analysis For Yozgat In Turkey

Abstract

In this study an energy consumption modelling for long term (December 2006- March 2016) forecasting of monthly natural gas consumption in households and industry area for Yozgat city, Turkey was presented. In this context, it can be said that this paper has two purposes. One of them is the application and accuracy of the artificial neural networks. Estimate performances are compared with each other, and the estimates of the optimal models are evaluated with the monthly recorded natural gas consumption according to root mean square error, mean absolute error, and correlation coefficient. The other purpose of the study is to analysis trend of monthly natural gas consumption of Yozgat by using Mann-Kendall and a new method recently proposed by Şen. The results showed that the artificial neural networks gave satisfactory results in estimating monthly natural gas consumption. In the trend analysis, it was seen that both Mann-Kendall and Şen trend tests gave statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level for monthly natural gas consumption of Yozgat.

Keywords

• yapay sinir ağları
• aylık doğal gaz tüketimi
• mann-kendall eğilim testi
• şen eğilim testi
• yozgat
• artificial neural networks
• monthly natural gas consumption
• mann-kendall trend test
• şen trend test
• yozgat