Assessment of the resilience and long-term effects of climate change on the surface area of Lake Yojoa

Abstract

Lake Yojoa is Honduras’s only natural freshwater lake with historical, cultural, and recreational value. The lake is the core of the local economy and one of the country’s biggest tourist attractions. However, the development of the watershed during the last four decades imposed multiple anthropogenic pressures including mining, hydroelectric power generation, aquaculture, agriculture, ranching, and tourism businesses. Lake eutrophication emerges from these human-induced stressors, and climate change is the newest stressor threatening Lake Yojoa’s ecosystem health. This paper aims to investigate climate change’s effects on Lake Yojoa’s surface area over the past four decades. More specifically, this research studied lake shrinkage and recharge dynamics related to climate change, anthropocene effects, limnological risks, and the lake’s resilience. A decrease in surface area was expected after four decades of anthropogenic and climatic stressors. A Landsat imagery survey was conducted to create a time series to analyze surface area variability from 1985 to 2003, 2011, and 2013–2022. The analysis relied on the normalized difference water index model to estimate the surface areas, which ranged from 76.5 to 83 km2 and revealed a multitemporal decrease of ~6 km2. Abundant precipitation and storms have recharged Lake Yojoa through the years, while droughts and elevated temperatures have accentuated water evaporation and contributed to surface area loss. Despite intermittent flooding and droughts, Lake Yojoa’s trophic state showed resilience and consistency over time. Still, climate change and anthropogenic stressors are intensifying lake shrinkage worldwide, and without appropriate Honduran regulation, they may advance the eutrophication and shrinkage of Lake Yojoa.

Keywords

• Lake Yojoa
• NDWI
• shrinking lake
• climate change
• resilience.