PROBABILITY OF PIPE DAMAGE AND FAILURES IN IRRIGATION SYSTEMS

Abstract

Purpose: to process data on damage and failures on the irrigation pipes to assess the technical condition of the pipeline, to define its performance reliability, terms of its failure-free operation, to determine the time after which the pipeline needs repairing, reconstruction or replacing of certain elements. Materials and methods: the analysis of statistical data on defects and damage on the Engels irrigation system pipeline was carried out; mathematical processing of data on pipe damage and failures was carried out using the methods of mathematical statistics with their consideration as random variables: first, the number of damage and failures was calculated, then the empirical distribution of random variables and the empirical probabilities of their distribution were compiled; the expectation value of damage and failures occurrence on the pipeline is calculated. Results: according to the field observations, a list of defects and damage on this pipeline recorded in the corresponding observation log was compiled, and possible causes of their occurrence presented in tabular form and figures were given; based on the results of calculations, a histogram and theoretical distribution curves for the expectation values of damage and failures occurrence on the pipeline were constructed. Conclusion: the probability of the first damage and failures occurrence after 14 years of pipe operation has been determined, further damage and failures increase, and by the 17th–18th year in order to prevent damage and failures, it is necessary to repair the pipeline, joints and stop valves due to corrosion, cracks, chips, dents and other damage.

Keywords

• expectation value
• pipeline
• irrigation system
• data processing
• defect
• damage
• failure