China Economic Quarterly International (Sep 2024)
The return of protectionism: Prospects for Sino-US trade relations in the wake of the trade war
Abstract
Over the past six years, the Sino-US trade war has not only reshaped the relationship between the world's two largest economies but also profoundly influenced the global economic and trade patterns. This paper reviews the background, process, and implications of the Sino-US trade war, examining its impact on China, the United States, and the broader global trade landscape across various socioeconomic dimensions. We begin by reviewing the development of Sino-US trade relations in the past 20 years. Next we detail the background and evolution of the trade war. We then discuss the economic consequences of the conflict, including the effect of tariff increases on product prices, employment, investment, consumption, and welfare. Finally, we explore the reshaping of supply chains in the aftermath of the trade conflict, and the interaction between trade policies and industrial policies within the context of the Sino-US trade war.Existing literature indicates that the Sino-US trade war has resulted in significant welfare losses for both countries, with surprisingly little impact on employment. The tariffs have not achieved the intended outcome set by policymakers. Specifically, the additional tariffs imposed by the United States on China have neither effectively addressed trade imbalances nor brought manufacturing jobs back onshore. Our paper offers a new perspective on the complexity of the current international trade conflict.
