Predicting the impact of environmental factors on citrus canker through multiple regression.

Abstract

Climatic conditions play a significant role in the development of citrus canker caused by Xanthomonas citri pv. citri (Xcc). Citrus canker is regarded as one of the major threats being faced by citrus industry in citrus growing countries of the world. Climatic factors exert significant impacts on growth stage, host susceptibility, succulence, vigor, survival, multiplication rate, pathogen dispersion, spore penetration rate, and spore germination. Predicting the impacts of climatic factors on these traits could aid in the development of effective management strategies against the disease. This study predicted the impacts of environmental variables, i.e., temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind speed the development of citrus canker through multiple regression. These environmental variables were correlated with the development of canker on thirty (30) citrus varieties during 2017 to 2020. Significant positive correlations were noted among environment variables and disease development modeled through multiple regression model (Y = +24.02 + 0.5585 X1 + 0.2997 X2 + 0.3534 X3 + 3.590 X4 + 1.639 X5). Goodness of fit of the model was signified by coefficient determination value (97.5%). Results revealed the optimum values of environmental variables, i.e., maximum temperature (37°C), minimum temperature (27°C), relative humidity (55%), rainfall (4.7-7.1 mm) and wind speed (8 Km/h), which were conducive for the development of citrus canker. Current study would help researchers in designing better management strategies against citrus canker disease under changing climatic conditions in the future.