Disaster loss index development and comprehensive assessment: A case study of Shanghai

Abstract

Accurate measurement of socio-economic loss and the impact of disasters is crucial for effective risk assessment and management. This study introduces a Disaster Severity Index (DSI) and a Disaster Impact Index (DII), along with a composite severity matrix, to evaluate comprehensive disaster losses. By utilizing seven loss indicators across six types of natural disasters and socioeconomic indicators, we thoroughly assessed Shanghai’s historical disaster losses from 1978 to 2020. Our analysis reveals that Shanghai’s most severe annual disaster losses occurred in 1991 and 2005; however, the overall impact on the local socio-economy has been declining. According to the DSI, Chongming (0.88), Songjiang (0.64), and Qingpu (0.51) Districts exhibit the highest severity. In terms of the DII, Songjiang (0.87), Chongming (0.71), and Qingpu (0.64) Districts are most affected. The comprehensive disaster severity grading indicates that Chongming and Songjiang Districts experience the most severe impacts, while Huangpu and Xuhui Districts are less affected. The spatial distribution of disaster losses is concentrated in suburban areas, with less impact in the central city. Our methodology provides a framework for analyzing and comparing historical disaster losses in terms of time (inter-annual), space (administrative divisions), and types of disasters. It can also be used for statistical analysis and regular monitoring of disaster losses. This study not only elucidates the spatiotemporal distribution of historical disaster losses in Shanghai but also validates the efficacy of our comprehensive index models.

Keywords

• Historical disaster loss
• Disaster severity index
• Disaster impact index
• Composite disaster severity matrix
• Shanghai