The burden of injury among elderly individuals in China from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of data from the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Background: With the rapid ageing of the population, injuries are increasingly threatening the health of elderly individuals. A comprehensive evaluation of the injury burden is important for selecting and formulating strategies for injury prevention. Objective: To evaluate the temporal trends of injury burden among elderly Chinese individuals aged 60 years and older. Methods: Based on the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the injury mortality, morbidity, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of elderly individuals from 1990 to 2019 were estimated by age and sex. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the injury burden in the next decade. Results: In 2019, there were an estimated 304 373 deaths due to injuries in China, accounting for 3.55 % of all deaths. The main cause of injury-related death was unintentional injuries (67.28 deaths per 100 000), followed by transport injuries (30.44 deaths per 100 000). The standardized DALYs rate due to injuries among elderly individuals was 3488.54 DALYs per 100 000. In the past 30 years, the morbidity of injuries among elderly individuals in China has increased by 52.18 %. In 2030, we estimated that there will be 398 200 deaths of elderly individuals due to injury. Conclusions: Over 21% of injury-related deaths among elderly individuals occurred in China. The injury burden among elderly individuals is high, and efforts are needed to inform injury prevention policies and adopt injury prevention strategies to reduce the injury burden and promote the health and well-being of elderly individuals.

Keywords

• Burden
• Injury
• Elderly individuals
• Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
• Risk factors
• Model prediction