Assessment of relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) changes and precipitation types in Nigeria from 2000 to 2022

Abstract

This study investigated the circulation patterns associated with rainfall variations across Nigeria’s different climatic zones (2000–2022). Data was acquired from MERRA2, gridded ERSST5 provided by the NOAA, and observation data records obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to compare different precipitation types, while the Multinomial Logistic Regression Model was employed to examine the influence of SSTa on precipitation presenting regression coefficients with a significance level set at p < 0.05. Five distint standard precipitation index (SPI) classes: very dry, dry, normal, wet and very wet were categorised using prcipitation data. Analysis was done in R-studio and involved data preparation, model training, and evaluation, with emphasis on interpreting the coefficients to discern the impact of SST anomalies on precipitation for each specified level. The results show that TOP, AVP, LSP, and CNP varied: spatially, the northern region received low moisture budget from the Atlantic Ocean while the temporal distribution of precipitation across different climatic zones indicate high variability in precipitation across these zones. The mean SSTa in the WAf region were predominantly positive (0.5 and 1). The lowest (highest) global SST values were prevalent during the DJF (JJA) season(s) whereas, the monthly distribution of SSTa for the WAf region reveal neutral (2000–2016) and El Niño (2016–2022) episodes. The analysis of NIF values indicates a varied but generally stronger relationship between WAf SST anomalies and precipitation types compared to nino3.4 SST versus precipitation types. As a signal for prediction of seasonal and spatial distribution of precipitation across Nigeria’s different climatic zones, this outcome can support planning for food security, water and biodiversity conservation, and climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Keywords

• SST
• ENSO
• Multinomial regression
• PCA
• Koppen
• Climate