Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval, and incubation period distributions for COVID-19

Dongxuan Chen; Yiu-Chung Lau; Xiao-Ke Xu; Lin Wang; Zhanwei Du; Tim K. Tsang; Peng Wu; Eric H. Y. Lau; Jacco Wallinga; Benjamin J. Cowling; Sheikh Taslim Ali

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35496-8

Nature Communications (Dec 2022)

Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval, and incubation period distributions for COVID-19

Dongxuan Chen,
Yiu-Chung Lau,
Xiao-Ke Xu,
Lin Wang,
Zhanwei Du,
Tim K. Tsang,
Peng Wu,
Eric H. Y. Lau,
Jacco Wallinga,
Benjamin J. Cowling,
Sheikh Taslim Ali

Affiliations

Dongxuan Chen: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Yiu-Chung Lau: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Xiao-Ke Xu: College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University
Lin Wang: Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge
Zhanwei Du: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Tim K. Tsang: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Peng Wu: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Eric H. Y. Lau: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Jacco Wallinga: Center for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
Benjamin J. Cowling: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong
Sheikh Taslim Ali: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35496-8
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 13, no. 1
pp. 1 – 12

Abstract

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The generation time (interval between successive infections in a transmission chain) is an important parameter for epidemiological modeling. Here, the authors develop a framework for estimating this parameter and how it changes over time and apply it to data from China in the first months of the pandemic.

Published in Nature Communications

ISSN: 2041-1723 (Online)
Publisher: Nature Portfolio
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science
Website: https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

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