Diagnostic profiles of acute abdominal pain with multinomial logistic regression

Abstract

Purpose: Application of multinomial logistic regression for diagnostic support of acute abdominal pain, a diagnostic problem with many differential diagnoses. Methods: The analysis is based on a prospective data base with 2280 patients with acute abdominal pain, characterized by 87 variables from history and clinical examination and 12 differential diagnoses. Associations between single variables from history and clinical examination and the final diagnoses were investigated with multinomial logistic regression. Results: Exemplarily, the results are presented for the variable rigidity. A statistical significant association was observed for generalized rigidity and the diagnoses appendicitis, bowel obstruction, pancreatitis, perforated ulcer, multiple and other diagnoses and for localized rigidity and appendicitis, diverticulitis, biliary disease and perforated ulcer. Diagnostic profiles were generated by summarizing the statistical significant associations. As an example the diagnostic profile of acute appendicitis is presented. Conclusions: Compared to alternative approaches (e.g. independent Bayes, loglinear model) there are advantages for multinomial logistic regression to support complex differential diagnostic problems, provided potential traps are avoided (e.g. α-error, interpretation of odds ratio).

Keywords

• multinomial logistic regression
• acute abdominal pain
• diagnosis