Dynamics of mangrove forest distribution changes in Iran

Abstract

Mangroves are known for providing multiple ecosystem services and critical habitats for diverse species and are one of the most threatened ecosystems by human activities and climate change. However, little is known about their distributional patterns. In this study, the distribution of the dominant species, Avicennia marina was examined in the context of climate change to identify conservation priority objectives at the spatial and temporal scales on the southern coast of Iran. A maximum entropy model was used to predict the potential distribution of the mangrove forest in the current situation and forecast its future (2070: RCP 8.5, CCSM4). The result revealed that the potential distribution for the mangroves will decrease in the future and probably two habitat patches remain, one patch in the middle of the coasts of the Persian Gulf and another patch in the middle of the coasts of the Oman Sea. Annual mean temperature, temperature annual range, and annual precipitation were the most important determinants of the mangrove distribution. The findings can be used as a theoretical basis to manage and protect the habitat of mangroves in Iran. HIGHLIGHTS Mangrove forests in Iran are found on the sheltered coasts, estuaries, and some near-shore islands of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea and Avicennia marina is the dominant species.; Mangrove habitat distribution in the southern coasts of Iran under climate, biochemical, and environmental conditions were predicted.; The potential distribution for A. marina will decrease under RCP 8.5 by 2070.; Eastern parts of the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea are the most suitable areas for mangrove distribution.;

Keywords

• avicennia marina
• maxent
• oman sea
• persian gulf
• species distribution model