Analytical Assessment of Future Climate Changes in the Amol-Babol Plain Using the Main Variables Affecting Its Trend

Abstract

According to the base period selected in this research and the average monthly precipitation and temperature, the base period extracted from the statistics of the nearest synoptic station to the study area, the average monthly precipitation and temperature of the future years were simulated by the famous climate model LARS-WG5. Based on the results of this research, it is revealed that from the first of January to the first of March, the average monthly rainfall will increase in the future periods compared to the base period, it will decrease in the month of March and a relative increase in the amount of rainfall will be seen in the rest of the year, that will be more evident in October and November. The decrease of rainfall in the coming months of March due to the beginning of the vegetation period and the water requirement of agricultural plants, Also premature fall of pastures due to drought stress has an effective role in changing hydrological processes and naturally its effect on other environmental components. Regarding the current and future temperature situation, according to the climate change scenarios, the monthly temperature from the HADCM3 model for different months of the year shows the highest temperature changes in the months of March, June, and January, respectively, which indicates the warming of early spring and early summer, as well as It is the beginning of winter in the future periods that these phenomena will have a significant impact on the flowering time of plants, creating water stress in these seasons.

Keywords

• precipitation amounts
• temperature changes
• climate scenarios
• amol-babol plain