INFLUENCE OF UNCERTAINTY FACTOR ON DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS IN RUSSIA

Abstract

Observing development of the crisis in the Russian economy, it appears that one of the reasons for the decline in the economic development is an increasing degree of uncertainty. The situation affects investment processes and multiplies itself in a growing deficiency of national income. High uncertainty blocks investments in capital-intensive and specific assets and makes economic entities transfer their resources into financial sector and, most often, outside the economy. 49 % of fixed industrial assets depreciation is an indirect proof of this situation. Depreciation of the Russian fixed assets in mining operations is 53.2 %, which includes 22.9 % of fully depreciated assets. At present, when the coefficient of renewal in this branch of ndustry is a little more than 6 and the coefficient of retirement is 0.9, the situation seems to be disastrous. There are a lot of reasons for such situation, especially in the economic sphere. One of them is that within the neoliberal ideology dominating in the economic science with its emphasis on the automatic spontaneous adaptation there is actually no place for development of recommendations for a willful increase in efficiency of adaptation to uncertainty. After all, if we consider that the market leads the entire system to the most optimum equilibrium state, a need for such development simply does not arise. The main objective of this work is to show how the uncertainty factor increases recessionary trends in the Russian economy. Applying Keynesian analysis technique and dividing all savings into investment and hoarding ones, the author proves that Russia has a very low level of adaptive efficiency which reflects long-term ability of the economy to adjust successfully to changing internal and external conditions without any detriment to the implementation of the intended targets and tasks. It is a low level of adaptive efficiency that makes the current crisis so severe. The application of different methods for government regulation when there is a high level of uncertainty has been studied in details.

Keywords

• keynesianism, investments, savings, economic crisis, hoarding, malthusian trap, adaptive efficiency, institutional theory