DEMATEL, AISM, and MICMAC-Based Research on Causative Factors of Self-Build Housing Fire Accidents in Rural Areas of China

Abstract

In recent years, the fire safety problems in self-build housing in China’s vast rural areas have become increasingly prominent. We analyzed the interaction of causative factors and logical structure of self-build housing fire accidents (SBHFAs) to find their key causes and reduce their occurrence. Using the 24Model, 30 SBHFA investigation reports were analyzed, and 44 SBHFA causative factors and 97 causal relationship codes were obtained. The causality and centrality degree of causative factors were analyzed using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method to obtain the causal attribute and importance of causative factors. An adversarial hierarchical topology model of causative factors was conducted using the adversarial interpretive structural modeling (AISM) method, and the causal hierarchical relationships were obtained. Using the Matrices Impacts Croises-Multiplication Appliance Classement (MICMAC) analysis, the causative factors’ dependency degree and driving force were calculated. Combining and comparing the results of DEMATEL, AISM, and MICMAC analyses, we found that the adversarial hierarchical topology model of causative factors was reasonable, and key direct causative factors, key transitional causative factors, and key root causative factors were mined. Controlling the key causative factors could effectively reduce the occurrence of SBHFAs and guide the fire safety management of self-build housings in rural areas of China.

Keywords

• self-build housing
• fire accident
• causative factor
• adversarial hierarchy topology
• DEMATEL
• AISM