Статистика и экономика (Oct 2016)
Estimation of econometric indicators on the basis of the regression analysis (on the example of food consumption by the population of the Arkhangelsk region)
Abstract
The purpose of this research is detection of characteristic features and regularities in food consumption by the population of the Arkhangelsk region on the basis of statistical estimation of such econometric indicators as the growth rate of food expenditures with change of the income of households of this population, and also income elasticity of expenditures and income elasticity of a share of food expenditures. For calculation of these indicators the nonlinear one-factorial regression model describing interrelation of the income and food expenditures of the population of the Arkhangelsk region was offered. In the paper the considerable attention is paid to check of accomplishment of conditions of reliability and importance of this regression model. For carrying out the statistical analysis microdata of selective examinations of budgets of the households of the Arkhangelsk region for the IV quarter of 2012 conducted by Rosstat were used. For data processing the packet of the statistical analysis of SPSS was used, and the solution of objectives was performed by methods of the correlation and regression analysis, and also by means of check of distributions of the researched quantities to a normality and the analysis of a regression residuals. During the research double logarithmic regression model was developed and statistically significant equation of regression which adequately describes interrelation of an income and food expenditures of households of the Arkhangelsk region is received. Proceeding from the received regression equation, income elasticities of expenditures and of a share of food expenditures were calculated: value of elasticity of the first size showed that in case of increase in incomes of the population of the Arkhangelsk region by 1% food expenditures increase on average for 0,5%, the received negative value of elasticity of a share of food expenditures demonstrates that in case of increase in incomes of this population by 1% the share of food expenditures decreases on average for 0,5%. On the basis of the carried-out regression analysis where, in addition, special attention was paid to check of observance of necessary conditions for its application, and estimation of the corresponding econometric indicators, it is possible to draw the following conclusions on food consumption by the population of the Arkhangelsk region: with increase in income food expenditures of households also increase, however the growth rate of such expenditures decreases; owing to income elasticity of expenditures, small in comparison with unit, food for the population of the Arkhangelsk region are essential goods; at last, food consumption by this population is in a consent with the economic Engel’s law determining dependence of a share of food expenditures in volume of incomes of households on their level.
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